The economic impact of this pandemic is likely to be more severe for India in the following manner (a) increase in poverty i.e. Further, the study by Stranded Workers Action Network showed that 89% of the stranded workers had not been paid wages by their employers during the first 21 days of lockdown and that 74% had less than half their daily wages to live on. About 50% of migrant workers stated that they had rations for less than a day when interviewed. These workers constituting the informal sector, total to a staggering 139 million and are about 93% of the workforce. The scenario among the internal migrant workers (intra- and inter-state) in India is equally grim. įall in remittance flows to 3 countries of South-East Asia (in USD$) from 2019 to 2020 (Adapted from Reference 11). The World Economic Forum states that in the current pandemic situation, migrants stuck abroad trying to cope with the exigencies will compromise to the adverse circumstances, by taking up low wage jobs, live in poor working conditions, restrict spending and thus, risk exposure to infections like the coronavirus. ), to $64 billion ( ₹4,80,000 crores) in striking contrast to a growth of 5.5% and receipts of $83 billion (₹ 6,20,000 crores) seen in 2019. Importantly, remittances are projected to fall by about 23% in India in 2020 ( Fig. 1 ![]() The disruption caused by COVID19 has had a significant impact on these remittance flows. About $139 billion (₹ 1042500 crores) was remitted to low and middle income (LMICs) countries of South Asia from countries of work (e.g. Remittance of money to the home country, which many migrant Indian workers popularly do, is another way of poverty reduction, economic development and increase in GDP. The distressing media visuals of migrant labourers going to their native places from the cities on foot during the lockdown has been critically debated. ĭuring the current pandemic, the economic downturn has greatly affected people from the lower socio-economic stratum (SES). The healthcare sector, the fourth-largest employer in the country, and specifically the private sector which provides nearly 80% of out-patient care and about 60% of in-patient care is currently facing 90% losses due to decreases in out-patient attendance, elective surgeries and international patients. The Small and Medium Enterprises market ratings project that the nationwide lockdown is expected to incur losses of over $4.5 billion (₹ 35,000 crores) every day during the lockdown. It is self-evident, therefore, that an economy already affected by slow growth in the previous fiscal year would be severely affected by the lockdown as a result of the pandemic. The International Monetary Fund however, lowered India’s growth forecast by 1.3% points to 4.8% for 2019-20 and stated that India’s growth had slowed sharply. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth had been estimated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at 6.2% in 2019-20.
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